The early 2020 COVID-19 outbreak exposed longstanding gaps in China's international air-freight capacity just as demand for medical-supply transport spiked. By capacity and hub infrastructure, China trailed the logistics giants of the era — UPS's Worldport hub alone handled over 2 million packages daily across 300+ daily flights, while FedEx operated some 679 cargo aircraft across 211 countries and DHL Aviation ran roughly 420 aircraft through hubs in Brussels — versus China's roughly 173 cargo aircraft across 10 cargo airlines at the time, and no dedicated cargo-only airports (nearly half of China's air cargo moved through just three hub airports: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou).
The gap was compounded because most Chinese air cargo (about 70%) travelled in the belly holds of passenger aircraft rather than on dedicated freighters; when passenger flights were cancelled en masse from February 2020, international air cargo capacity fell by at least 60% for a stretch, pushing air rates on U.S., European, Middle East and Japan routes up by roughly 1-3x versus pre-Lunar New Year levels. Ocean freight was hit too — the Baltic Dry Index fell nearly 70% over six months, and by early April global carriers had suspended 212 sailings for the year, concentrated in the following five to six weeks, with the steepest capacity withdrawal on Asia-Europe routes.
The response mobilized several channels at once: China's civil aviation regulator encouraged passenger-to-cargo conversions (using existing passenger aircraft to carry freight in-cabin, not full airframe conversion) to add capacity quickly; postal and courier carriers opened new international charter routes (China Post to Russia and Belgium, SF Airlines to Europe, India and the U.S., YTO Cargo across over 80 charter flights); and China-Europe rail freight saw a surge — Q1 2020 volume rose 15-18% year-on-year (30-36% in March alone) as shippers who'd normally use ocean freight turned to rail for its combination of shorter transit than sea, lower cost than air, and continued operation through the pandemic, backed by relaxed AEO customs-clearance policies and continuing "Belt and Road" government subsidies.
